盘古智库2019新年献词:把握变化带来的机遇

如果把一个世纪比作人的一生，那么当新年钟声敲响的时候，21世纪就将迎来自己的19周岁，这个曾经的“新世纪”成年了。

即将过去的2018年，我们想了很多，说了很多，也做了很多，意义何在，效果何在，共识何在，时间是唯一的仲裁者。

2018年，面对更加艰巨的内部调整任务和更加复杂的外部挑战，我们的国家砥砺前行，部分压力得到释放，很多问题仍在延宕。一个普遍的感觉是：最坏的还没有到来，最好的也仍在前方。

2018年，中国回顾总结过去40年的改革开放进程，大大小小、方方面面的纪念活动持续了近一年，国家出台了上千项深化改革和扩大开放的具体措施，总的是要将这场具有觉醒和革命意义的改革进行到底。

这一年，不少带给我们美好记忆的改革同行者离世，更有一大批生龙活虎的改革继承人开始接受聚光灯的照射。当告别的伤感不断叠加，人们也看到国家和民族在代际交替中增添了一分厚重和成熟。

2018年也是世界继续分化的一年，坚守与淡出、前进与倒退、公利与私益、崛起与守成的矛盾更加尖锐。在不同的利益格局、战略目标和意识形态驱使下，大国竞争重返国际舞台前沿，体系崩溃的张力还在积蓄，尚未充分做好心理和物质准备的中国成为竞争的焦点。

我们离真正看清这世界还差得远，甚至也还未完全看清自己。但有一点可以明确，过去40年我们是在顺境中推进改革开放，今后若干年我们恐怕需要适应在逆境中推进改革开放。

相对不那么顺畅的外部环境的生成，并不全是因为怀疑和敌意的增加，也是由于我们这个国家已经长成大块头，肩负更多责任，举手投足都更直接地牵动别人的利益，自然会受到更多猜忌和算计，甚至排挤，过去长时间作为穷国弱国所享受的便利和优待也不可能永相伴随。

随着中国融入世界程度的加深，我们自己的问题便是世界的问题，世界的问题也是我们自己的问题。国内治理与全球治理加强呼应和匹配的要求越来越高，而我们在这方面暴露出很多尚不适应的地方，还需要继续向世界学习，在持续不断的改革开放实践中磨练、完善自己，照顾、惠及他国。

国家身上的压力感明显增加，我们每个人身上的压力感也在增多。如果增长放缓只是阶段性的现象，那么“底”在哪里、“头”在何处，这样的讨论随处可以听闻，结论并不确定，焦虑和彷徨并不鲜见。

2019年的变化可能会更多更复杂，我们将不得不继续小心翼翼地绕开各种不确定性的陷阱，在坚守自我的过程中顾盼新的景气降临。

但请不要放低尝试与改变的勇气。“千金剑，万言策，两蹉跎”的感叹于事无补，我们需要“不恨年华去也，只恐少年心事，强半为消磨”的心态。

面对不确定，我们需要鼓呼。一个社会如果泯灭了建言的精神，窒息了讨论的氛围，希望的灯油将逐渐燃尽。我们更需要行动：一是担当，做好手头事，若有余力帮助他人；二是储备，积蓄“信心黄金”和“知识财富”，为未来做准备；三是把握，敏锐抓住变化带来的机遇，随时做出智慧型的调整，主动创造未来。

还需要相信。相信改革者，每一个真正的改革者，都是在不断试错纠错的过程中成长起来的。相信自己，我们每个人都是改革的一分子、国家梦想的组成要素，我们的态度汇集起来，便是改革的方向和梦想的色彩。而在相信的同时，我们也需要谨记，自信与骄傲有异，骄傲者常浮扬，自信者常沉着。

2018年，经过5年积累和磨砺的盘古智库拥有了较为系统的研究体系、咨政与产业服务系统和运营管理队伍，建立起具有竞争力的专家团队和理事会，在为国家谋实策、做实事方面迈出新的步伐，拥有了更大的国内外影响力，社会智库排名继续上升。

新的一年，盘古智库将继续聚焦人工智能、节能环保、文旅文创和大健康产业，贯通产学研全链条，为国家和地方改革发展献计献策；对外抓牢美国、印度、韩国等重点资源方向，做完善对外战略的积极参与者和民间外交的活跃实践者。

辞旧迎新，正是小寒时节。数九寒天，还需爬冰卧雪。逆风而行，方显英雄本色。这是我们在2019年即将到来之际发出的励言，谨祝大家新年顺遂。

English Version

SEIZE THE CHANCE IN THE CHANGE

—— THE PANGOAL INSTITUTION’S 

2019 NEW YEAR’S MESSAGE

If comparing a century to a person’s life, the 21st century, the one we used to call the “new century”, will welcome its 19th birthday and then grow up to be an adult upon the sound of the New Year’s chime.

In 2018, the year which is coming to an end, we have thought a lot, talked a lot and done a lot, which has resulted in so much regarding such perspectives as meaning, effect and consensus, are left for time to prove.

The year 2018 has witnessed the profound development of China, which has faced tasks of internal adjustment and external challenges of more complexity. Some pressures have been relieved while many problems remain. There is a general conclusion: the worst is yet to come while so is the best.

In 2018, during the conclusion of the progress made since the reform and opening up in the past 40 years, commemorations and events, various in scales and perspectives, were conducted nearly throughout the year. China has formulated more than a thousand measures to further reform and deepen its opening up, all with the determination to walk along the way of this awakening and revolutionary reform.

Many of our reform companions left us with their warm memories and a new generation of followers began to enter the stage. In the recurring melancholy brought by leaving, we also felt the modesty and maturity shown by our country and our people in the changes of generations.

The year 2018 has also seen the further division of the world in which such conflicts as persevering vs abstaining, progressing vs retrogressing, public welfare vs private profit, rising vs staying became increasingly severe. Driven by different beneficial patterns, strategic targets and ideologies, competition between the great powers came back to the international stage with ever intensified extension brought about by the collapsing of systematic balance. Under these circumstances, China, which has not yet prepared both emotionally and materially, became the focus in such competition. 

We are still far away from understanding ourselves, let alone understanding the world. But one thing is for sure: we have promoted reform and opening up in a 40-year favorable circumstance; but we probably need to do this in adversity in the future.

The birth of the relatively adverse external environment is not only to blame for the increase of doubt and hostility. It also means that China is on the way to grow as a great power with more responsibility that is easily influencing others’ benefits. Coming along with this are more envy, cunning, even exclusion. The convenience and favorable conditions as an underdeveloped country will not stay forever.

With the deepening of integration of China into the world, our problems and those in the world become ever intermingled: mine are theirs while theirs are mine. The call for response and matching between domestic and global governance is needed when China shows maladjustment in this respect. China needs to continue learning from the world. In the continuing practices of reform and opening up, China is training, perfecting itself, catering, benefiting others.

While China feels more pressures on itself, we, as individuals, also feel the same. If decelerated growth is temporal, we want to know where the limit lies and where it ends. The conclusion for this wide-spread discussion is uncertain, which brings much anxiety and hesitation.

The year 2019 may bring about more changes that are more complicated, which calls for us to avoid traps of uncertainty with caution. With self-determination, we will look forward to new prospects.

However, please do not feel discouraged for trying and changing. It is no use to sign up for “the uselessness of sharp weapons and wise advice”. We should harbor “the fear for the loss of ambition during aging”, not “the fear for aging”.

In the face of uncertainty, we need discussion. The hope of a society will vanish if there is no atmosphere for advising and discussing. We also need actions: first, exertion — do your job well and help others if possible; second, accumulation — accumulate “gold” of confidence and “wealth” of knowledge for future need; third, to seize — seize the chances during change and be wisely responsive as a way to create our future initiatives. 

We also need belief. We need to believe in the reformers who grow up in constant trial and error. We need to believe in ourselves who are part of the reform agents and elements of the China Dream. Our attitudes, if gathered together, will show our way for reform and dream. Besides, we need to notice the difference between confidence and arrogance: the latter is frivolous while the former is steady.

In 2018, the Pangoal Institution, with its 5-year development, has established a comprehensive research system, a system for policy advising and industrial service and a team for operational management. It has also built up a competitive expert team and council. The Pangoal Institution has increased in the rankings of social think tanks with its advancing influence both domestic and abroad and its steps forward in terms of policy advising and implementing for China.

In the new year, the Pangoal Institution will continue to lay its focus on such industries as artificial intelligence, energy conservation, cultural tourism, cultural innovation, and health. With its complete chain of producing, learning and researching, it dedicates itself to contributing to the reform and development of China and its regional areas. Also, it will focus on the US, India, and Korea where it holds resources with its roles as an active participant in foreign strategies and a practitioner in non-official events for diplomacy.

The occasion for the New Year is on the Slight Cold in the lunar calendar. The winter requires us to walk against the wind and snow; and just this will show one’s heroic bravery. This completes our message for the new year 2019. We wish you all a good start and Happy New Year.